Week+4

Customer referral value: Value of customers who joined because of referral__/__Discount Rate + Value of customers that would join anyway/Discount Rate
 * This is typically overlooked by most businesses
 * Social networking companies such as Facebook use this concept

The Doing-Saying Gap Exercising the real options The Art of Innovation Strategy as a revolution Product Category Lifecycle
 * "Getting to the next curve," Guy Kawasaki
 * Jump to the next curve: most companies are not innovating but staying on the same curve
 * Great products must have: depth, intelligence, be complete, be elegant, be emotive--must be unique and of value
 * Don't be afraid to polarize people: if you try to please everyone, you'll end up with mediocrity - A good example of this is how the Oregon Ducks brand is marketed. The uniforms are the biggest thing that stands out. Half the country thinks the uniforms are absolutely hideous, and the other half loves them. But at the end of the day, Oregon gets pub every year, and every college football Saturday just because of the uniforms.
 * Don't Worry, Be Crappy (curve jumping products must take risks). I would argue that this strategy requires a follow-up plan of some kind, and time could be important also. Launching a product before it is ready is risky, and not being prepared to address shortcomings, fix bugs, service known issues, etc. runs the risk of disaster. A company that launches a bad product and isn't prepared to follow up in a timely manner risks creating a reputation that cannot be overcome (see America Online, Iomega's Zip Drive, whatever company put out Olestra, car makers responsible for the Yugo, Suzuki and any AMC product, etc.)
 * We should be careful to distinguish between a bad product and a product that becomes obsolete in a fast-changing market. American Online was a good product for the time, but the telecommunications deregulation fundamentally changed the market for its services. While other companies were able to adapt while America Online did not have the infrastructure and partnerships to leverage the new markets. The Zip Drive was a good product for the time, but the technology advances allowed flash memory devices to eclipse their technology - Zip Drives never had a chance to adapt its technology. Distinguishing between a bad product and a product that can make the jump from fad to commodity and then taking the appropriate actions to move it in the right direction distinguishes the great from the also-ran.
 * Ice Business Curve: Ice Harvest - Ice Factory - Refrigerator
 * 10-15x better than the competition not 10-15%



Trade-off or Conjoint Analysis · Putting combinations in front of customers and letting them decide the relative importance of the attributes of a product or service by ranking. · In the graphical output, the greatest distance between the lowest and highest points suggests the most importance. (Note: When graphing, make sure the graphs are scaled consistently or they may seem off).

The Chasm
 * After the initial "boom" of a product, (spawned by innovators) it must somehow cross the chasm to begin it's growth to mass-markets.
 * The early majority still has not caught on to the product. However, after it crosses the chasm, the early majority will scoop it up, allowing it to continue to "Main Street."

United Beverage
 * GangBusters: continue developing & eschew other drink growth opportunities?
 * Market Research analysis
 * Continued growth for Gang Busters in target customer market (adolescents 9-14)--I believe there is room for expansion in the Gang Busters market. Anywhere from keeping current with relevant cartoon/movie characters, to innovative designs/themes with the drinks (e.g. Limited edition, Collector series, etc). The legacy of certain characters and the appeal it brings to a target market (adolescents) is undeniable.
 * cross-selling opportunity due to product familiarity w/GangBusters--This too is a key opportunity for United Beverages.
 * Development Costs: $100k/month (worst case results) vs. $300k/month (best case results)
 * Worst case outcome projection: marginal impact; competition gains ground; sales decline at 6%/month
 * Best case outcome projection: positive impact; competition does not gain; sales remain constant
 * Kid-Energy Drink: invest in development and eventual launch?
 * Market Research analysis
 * Potential market is smaller than current GangBuster market
 * Fast acceptance rate (focus group indicated easy product use and understanding due to the current market for energy drinks)
 * Approximately 80% of survey respondents expressed "positive" feedback
 * Development Costs: $800k for 4-8 months
 * Worst case outcome projection: moderatly successful; monthly sales of $500k
 * Best case outcome projection: very successful; monthly sales of $1 million
 * Dual-Drink: invest in development and eventual launch?
 * Market Research analysis
 * Potential market is 4-5 current GangBusters market in the long run
 * Slower acceptance rate (focus group was unsure about product use and understanding)
 * Approx. 50% of survey respondents were "not sure" regarding the idea. Almost 25% or respondents expressed some sort of "positive" feedback
 * Development Costs: $1.8 million for 6-12 months--(costly--risky)
 * Worst case outcome projection: market failure; monthly sales are negligible
 * Best case outcome projection: complete market success; monthly sales of $4 million and growing
 * Team 'Trees and Speed' recommendation: *IF* funding available, continue development and sales of GangBusters while funding development of Dual-Drink and launch into market. In the best case scenario comparing development of the Kid-Energy Drink vs. Dual-Drink, the Dual-Drink product would break-even only 2 months after Kid-Energy Drink but subsequent revenue would dwarf the Kid-Energy Drink.