Fall+2009+Week+13

Week 13

TEAM B, Week 13: Barry, JImmie, Jerry, Sarah

-Every Transaction has the potential to be a repeat transaction -"Give them the tools, stay in touch, turn them loose." -Collective Intelligence
 * As used by the Obama campaign. This is basically saying that you need to have a level of trust in the people at the ground level. Although it may be difficult to admit to, management must realize that there are people who may know more about a specific area, demographic, or topic. Upper management in Los Angeles may not have their finger on the pulse of Lecanto, Florida. People at the ground level can report to management (or campaign managers) the trends, demographics, and attitudes of the general masses. However, for some people, giving up this power and authority is easier said than done.
 * A theory on collective intelligence is that it is an example of central tendency (central limit theorem as applied to a large sample or population). Everybody has an idea on a subject that is based on some history or reality (the norm), but their database is influenced by perception or lost data (the variance from the norm). As a large enough sample is collected, the average tends towards the norm (reality) and away from the norm+/- some variance (perception).
 * Quite by accident I realized last evening the power of collective intelligence that's being played out via the Internet while reading my youngest son's Facebook page...Kyle (my son) and his peer classmates have to complete 8 essays by Thursday of this week. They used FB, and very quickly, to collaborate on the assignment:**Very true. Although some sites are geared towards education, consumer benefit, etc., they are also lucrative as well. In essence, if a site is set up where collective intelligence is factored in, it is not uncommon to see it as a business practice as well, where benefits may be reaped by ad placement, clicks, etc.(via the internet of course)
 * ===Kyle: 7/8 essays done! ===
 * Jami**: will you help me with divide/classify please, if you already have it done?**
 * Kyle**: definition.. which i have no clue**
 * Lauren**: jami - what's your topic? and kyle - just think about how we did that paragraph you got 9.5/10 on ;) it's like compare and contrast, but with only one**
 * Kyle**: Definition**
 * Jami**: the zoo**
 * Jami**:big surprise there haha**
 * Lauren**: kyle - wait, what? and jami - okay so like, if you were to pick the different species of animals or something like that, you would describe each species. orrrr you could do zoo hater, zoo liker, and zoo lover, and rank them in order from least to greatest. get it? \**
 * Jami**: ok i think that helps. thanks so much!**
 * Sarah**: Divide classify is easy. You just need to pick an overarching subject and then divide it up. Let's say you're looking at pajamas. You would just write about the different types, boxers, long pants, shirts, etc. Definition is a bit harder. You have to pick one thing - saaaaaay, peace. Then you have to define what peace is by giving it a theme "Peace is the general acceptance of one another and the collaboration of groups working to a certain end." Once you do that the rest is pretty easy =)**
 * Kyle**: Friends: Friends are the individuals whom you are connected on a personal level and then i could discuss the relationships of friends??**
 * Lauren**: do you have my essay?**
 * Kyle**: yes**
 * Lauren**: that's not helping?!**
 * Lauren**: ohh i did support system, huh?**
 * Kyle**: Nooooooot really**
 * Lauren**: idk dude :/ just bs it and redo it later**
 * Kyle**: Good call.**
 * Emily**: Your paper doesnt sound like it going to be bad to me ((:**
 * Sarah**: ou'd have to define it a little more than that. "Friends are the individuals to whom you are connected on a personal level and share similar experiences." Then to define you'd need to have at least two paragraphs. In the first you'd have how friends are connected, and in the second you'd have how they share similar experiences. Just an idea. I'm sure you can do better than that since you've already been thinking about friends for 7 essays ;)**
 * DARPA Network Challenge:** MIT wins by using a "pyramid scheme" strategy through social networking sites. Below is a map of where the 10 baloons were found. One was here in Portland!
 * DARPA Network Challenge:** MIT wins by using a "pyramid scheme" strategy through social networking sites. Below is a map of where the 10 baloons were found. One was here in Portland!



-Repeated Game Theory: Outcome not only depends on your choices, but the choices of others. When the game is played more that once, new choices take past choices into account. -Start off being positive -Wisdom of Crowds -Prediction Markets: acts like the stock market -Survery Target Customers (beware of limitations) -Disadvantages of Tapping Employee Ideas Hollywood Stock Exchange Iowa Electronic Markets: for the presidential election sports Here's an interesting website promoting prediction markets []

As discussed in class, there is an air of inconsistency in the prediction markets like in American Idol. Adam Lambert should have won, but as the show progressed each voter also evolved. One voter may have considered Lambert arrogant and for that reason alone voted for "the other guy." You are making predictions on the voters not the contestants.

As I stated in class, a few years ago the management in the product development group I was working in decided to attempt creating a future product roadmap using the collective intelligence of the overall group (~800 people) by enrolling all of us in a predictive market exercise. Their intentions were good but they failed to understand a fundamental rule of economics: incentives matter (kudos to Paul Lande). The exercise failed miserably as there were no incentives offered to all of us to actively participate and interest died within the 1st month.

Here is a link for what appears to be one of the largest online predictive markets:

[|http://www.intrade.com]

On this site you can invest in all kinds of interesting predictive markets, including:

1. Will Sarah Palin announce her candidacy before 12/31/2011? 2. Will "Up in the AIr" win a Golden Globe award? 3. Will the US unemployment rate finish above 10% in 2009?

Some very interesting stuff. Check out which direction some of these items are trending....

You can "invest" in a huge number of different markets. Some areas include: 1. Business 2. Climate and Weather 3. Current Events 4. Entertainment 5. Financial 6. Fine Art 7. Fine Wine 8. Social and Civil

If you have some insider knowledge concerning North Korea and when they will be added to the "State Sponsors of Terrorism" list, here is a place that you can finally capitalize.